Job vacancies are falling – what does it mean?

Pay. Annual growth in regular pay plus bonuses was 4.3% in the three months to June. That’s down from 5.7% in the three months to May and half the rate in June 2023. 

 

Last year’s one-off NHS bonus payments explain part of the decrease but there’s still a clear fall in annual earnings growth. The slow-down in inflation is another factor that’s probably affecting pay negotiations. 

 

Employer confidence. Confidence is growing for employers to increase recruitment as inflation falls and the threat of recession recedes. Unemployment figures follow shifts in the economy, so things should improve showing a positive trend for employment. Interestingly, part-time roles rose by 144,000 in the quarter to June and full-time jobs fell by 48,000. That’s food for thought when you’re looking for a new job or planning your recruitment strategy. 

 

Employee health. There are over 2.8million people who aren’t working due to long-term ill-health. A survey asked employers what could help reduce long-term sickness rates in the UK. They said the government could extend eligibility for 30-hour childcare, reduce NHS waiting lists and provide targeted occupational health support. Flexible working initiatives to improve work-life balance were also priorities. Return-to-work pathways for people with long-term health problems could help fill some of the country’s 885,000 vacancies. Improved education and awareness around reasonable adjustments in the workplace and employee assistance programmes could also help. 

 

Currently there are around 1.7 unemployed people for every UK vacancy, but the numbers can vary significantly by sector. Opportunities still exist for both employers and job hunters who are ready to adapt in the current environment. 

 

Training and modern working practices can help tap into an underused talent pool to fill skills gaps. There are also opportunities for temporary roles as a route back into full time employment. 

 

Employers must find new ways to tackle the challenges of an ageing workforce, employee engagement and unfilled vacancies. Working remotely is potentially part of the solution. However, there are growing concerns about the mental health challenges it can present. Mental Health UK found that over 90% of UK adults had experienced high levels of stress. 

 

We’ll have to wait and see how proposals for changes to employment law expected in October could affect the picture. They are likely to include workers’ rights, pay, flexible working and wellbeing. 

 

With more than 22 years’ experience Ascendant Recruitment can help find your next job or attract and keep talented employees.